More violence after Iraqi elections?

Like most Americans, I’m hoping the January elections in Iraq can bring some stability to that country and reduce the attacks against our soldiers. That is why recent predictions by Bush and Rumsfeld that violence could increase even more are so distressing. Are their predictions of increased violence based on some logic they are not telling us about?

Obviously, the mission was not accomplished. Every “milestone” has been met with more, not less, violence. Baghdad was taken and Saddam’s statue toppled - violence increased. Uday and Qusay killed - more violence. Saddam pulled from his hole - more violence. An interim government appointed - more violence. With over 100 attacks per day, including many in the green zone and now in our soldiers’ mess tents, how could it get worse? But like all the other miscalculations, the upcoming elections could well be a launching pad to new levels of violence.

Right now most, but not all, of the violence is coming from Sunnis who are about 20% of the population. The Shia areas are relatively calm with their religious leaders promoting the upcoming elections which everyone agrees they will win since Shiites are 65% of the population. Polls find that while many Shia are happy Saddam is gone, they also overwhelmingly want our troops gone. What happens when the new government asks us to remove our troops? Are we going to abandon those permanent bases we’re building and more importantly the oil? No way!

If the Shia join the Sunnis in attacking our soldiers, the violence will increase to a magnitude that will shock us. What if an elected Iraqi government declares war on the U.S. and asks other countries to come to their aid? Our soldiers are a long way from home, it might be time to think about giving the Iraqis back their oil in exchange for the safe return of our soldiers.

When Johnny (and Joanie) come marching home

When will our troops be able to come home from Iraq? First we thought the homecoming would follow our capture of Baghdad and the toppling of Saddam’s statue. Even President Bush declared, “Mission accomplished!”

But occupied Iraq showered us with roadside bombs not flowers. Many thought soldiers would be coming home when Saddam’s sons, Uday and Qusay, were killed. Surely they would come home after Saddam’s capture. But the occupied stepped up their attacks and more Americans came home in hospital planes and in flag draped boxes than returned to march in Fourth of July parades.

We were told turning the government over to our ex-CIA operative, Ayad Allawi, would let the troop come home. But the occupied didn’t buy it and we were forced to ship more troops to rather than from Iraq, bringing our occupying force to an all time high of 150,000.

But there is light at the end of the tunnel. Maybe it will be the January elections. If not we can hope the adoption of a new constitution brings the troops home. But if all else fails, the troops will return once we have drained the oil.